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Let the young vote: Potential effects of lowering the voting age on elections in Czechia
Čejka, Štěpán ; Palanský, Miroslav (advisor) ; Mošovský, Jan (referee)
Several countries throughout the world have already adopted a reform that enables younger voters, from 15 or 16 years old, to vote. This thesis examines the potential influence of including such voters in the Czech Republic on recent elections. A key feature of my work is that it combines several methods together to model the voter turnout of this age group. To estimate the potential voter turnout of the 15 to 17-year-old category we use fixed effects estimation, together with the exact numbers of citizens from the 2021 state Census and combine them together with the results of Student election that are held by the People in Need organization. The uniqueness of this thesis is that we model the voter turnout in every of the 76 Districts from the 2012 Region election until the 2021 Chamber of Deputies election. We particularly focus on the 2017 Chamber of Deputies and the 2018 Presidential elections both with very narrow outcomes. Finally, we estimate that the inclusion of the young voters most likely would not alter the results of neither election.
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Territorial differentiation of voter turnout in local election in Czechia
HŘEBÍČKOVÁ, Anna
The presented bachelor thesis focuses on the analysis of spatial differentiation of voter turnout in local elections. The thesis uses quantitative analysis of voter turnout data for the reference period of 2006-2022. It examines how voter turnout differs in different geographic areas and what influences and factors may affect these differences. Voter turnout is analysed in hierarchically different spatial units, such as municipalities, districts, and regions, and these differences are also expressed through map outputs. Emphasis is placed particularly on the "problematic" regions of the Czech Republic - rural areas, border regions, or internal peripheries. At the same time, the thesis points out the developmental aspect of voter turnout over time, for which a change index is used in the thesis. Subsequently, the thesis also analyses the relationship between voter turnout and selected sociodemographic or socioeconomic characteristics of the population. The impact of factors such as age, education, and unemployment are particularly examined.
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Political Process in the selected municipality (Jindřichův Hradec)
BERKOVÁ, Vanessa
This thesis is focused on factors that affect the nature of the local political process in Jindřichův Hradec. It characterizes the main socio-economic indicators of the municipality, the evolution of the local politics and actors of the political process. The main goal of the thesis is to find out whether the citizens of Jindřichův Hradec voted the certain political party because of their sympathy for the well-known person in the leading position or because of their political programme. The theoretical basis describes the political process through the municipal self-government of the Czech Republic to the political participation of citizens. The socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the town is a transition between theoretical and practical part. It includes city characteristics, population information, demography, geography and education. The following practical part examines the individual years of municipal elections. Monitoring and comparing election results include the elections between 2002 and 2018. The data are gathered through the study of documents and information from the Czech Statistical Office and a questionnaire survey. The output of the practical part is that the personality of Stanislav Mrvka had a positive effect on the success of the CSDP (ČSSD) party in Jindřichův Hradec.
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The impact of COVID-19 on election outcomes: The case of the Czech Republic
Válek, Vojtěch ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (advisor) ; Mošovský, Jan (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and the election results in the 2021 parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic. Voter turnout together with the results of several political parties is analyzed at the district level. First, the election results of 2021 are examined separately using OLS regression, heteroskedasticity is not detected in the model. A panel dataset is then created, which also includes election results from 2013 and 2017. Based on the results of the Hausman test, the fxed efects method is used to analyze the panel data, and the frst-diferencing method is used as well for comparison. Pairs of years are then analyzed with the use of frst-diferencing, when the results are frst estimated without 2013, and then without 2017. The results of the analysis mainly show a signifcant relationship between the number of infected people and the results of individual political parties. While for political party ANO this relationship is negative, it is rather positive for the other political parties. The second dependent variable of interest is the number of deaths related to COVID-19. In this case, the results of the analysis do not indicate a signifcant connection with the election results. 1
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Population Characteristics of Voters: Evidence from the Czech Parliamentary Election
Černý, Jakub ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Želinský, Tomáš (referee)
In 2017, nine political parties were elected into the Czech Parliament, which is the greatest number in the history of the country. This thesis analyses the voter turnout and results of particular parties, using aggregated data on the municipal level. The goal is to find a spectrum of variables that would un- cover connections between the population characteristics of voters and their decisions to vote and to choose a political party. The method of weighted least squares is used for estimation and the results are tested for the presence of spa- tial autocorrelation. Subsequently, a spatial error model is used for the same analysis in order to observe spatial effects in the voting results and provide a comparison between the methods. There is found a significant negative con- nection between the voter turnout and the share of people facing distraints, unemployment, and the share of people with no education. Concerning the election results, the parties ANO, SPD, and KSCM receive greater support in municipalities with greater unemployment and lower shares of businessmen and people with university education. On the other hand, the parties ODS, Pirati, and TOP 09 evince exactly the opposite trends in these explanatory variables. JEL Classification H70, I21, I30, J10, J11 Keywords voting behaviour, voter...
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Czech Senate in perception of electors. The Analysis in View of History, Voter Turnout and Electoral System
Navrátil, Marek ; Mlejnek, Josef (advisor) ; Švec, Kamil (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with the Senate of the Parliament of the Czech Republic in view of history, voter turnout and electoral system. The main purpose of the thesis is to present the Senate in terms of broad perspective, based on the analysis of selected parts of the political system. The thesis is a case study which includes an analysis of the Czech Constitution preparations, a voter turnout analysis with the main purpose to present crucial trends and simulation of some variations of qualified plurality rule on existing electoral results of the Senate elections. There is also the theory of bicameralism presented as a part of the theoretical part in the thesis. Based on the analysis the thesis presents extensive conclusions. In the view of history there are historical and ideological circumstances and also political demands of participants in the case of proposing the institution of Senate. The main conclusion on the view of voter turnout is that since 2008 there has been a continual decrease, particularly in run-off. The thesis brings two groups of solution in order that the Senate elections voter turnout might increase. First, technical changes in the electoral act could be made, and second, the whole electoral system in terms of single-round option could be changed. Based on the simulation,...
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